Possibility of a Nuclear War in Asia: An Indian Perspective
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This book attempts to fuse two topical subjects and deal with them in a holistic manner. It is oft said and is also widely believed that the 21st century belongs to Asia and that the two giants of Asia, namely, China and India are going to dominate the world in the ensuing decades. It is also implicitly accepted that nuclear weapons are going to be there, at least for the foreseeable future. These are the two topics that have been analysed in this book; nuclear weapons and the emerging epicenter of global affairs, namely, Asia. The book deals with the fundamental nature of nuclear weapons itself. It purposely steers away from the Cold War mindset of viewing nuclear weapons in a western manner and attempts to unravel the manner in which the nations of Asia view these weapons in their own unique way. It is also about the nature of disputes in Asia and the security environment in Asia, both presently as well as in the foreseeable future. Since it is a fact that there are unresolved disputes in the region, the book also deals with the aspect of analysis of potential conflict scenarios. Will the countries succeed in settling their disputes diplomatically? Can deterrence succeed? What will happen if that fails? What will be the shape of future conflicts? This book makes a modest attempt to provide answers to some of these perplexing questions that plague policy makers and strategists in Asia today. Since the study is from an Indian perspective, the focus is naturally biased more towards South Asia vis-à-vis the other parts of Asia. Though the book attempts to answer all questions, some tough questions typically deny neat solutions. As the author admits, the aim of the book is to get both the policy and decision makers as well as the professional military to think about these issues, so that, in time, workable solutions can be evolved.
the US Strategic Doctrine, 1945-1980”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 4, No 1, March 1981. 13 See Henry Kissinger, “Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy”, referred in Kalevi.L.Hosti, “Peace and War”, Armed Conflicts and International Order 1648-1989, Cambridge, 1991. 14 Steven Cabby, “Military Doctrine and Technology” in Jonathan Alford, ed, “The Impact of New Military Technology”. London, 1984. 15 Henry Kissinger, “The Unresolved Problems of European Defence”, Foreign Affairs, July
Sagan, ed., Inside Nuclear South Asia (Stanford:Stanford University Press, 2009.. For South Asian perspectives, see, for example, V.R.Raghavan, “Limited War and Nuclear Escalation in South Asia,” The Nonproliferation Review 8, no. 3, (Fall-Winter 2001), pp. 82-98; P.R. Chari, “Nuclear Restraint, Risk Reduction, and the Security-Insecurity Paradox in South Asia,” in Michael Krepon, ed., Nuclear Risk Reduction in South Asia (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), pp. 1942; and Michael Krepon, Rodney
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and the capital to produce nuclear weapons within one year if necessary, and some analysts consider it a de facto nuclear state for this reason.88 Taiwan. Taiwan does not have nuclear weapons. However, Taiwan had made attempts to organize production of plutonium on an experimental basis. Taiwan had launched a nuclear weapons programme after the first Chinese nuclear test in October 1964. The military Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology developed the “Hsin Chu Programme” which included
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