China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia
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Throughout the past three decades East Asia has seen more peace and stability than at any time since the Opium Wars of 1839-1841. During this period China has rapidly emerged as a major regional power, averaging over nine percent economic growth per year since the introduction of its market reforms in 1978. Foreign businesses have flocked to invest in China, and Chinese exports have begun to flood the world. China is modernizing its military, has joined numerous regional and international institutions, and plays an increasingly visible role in international politics. In response to this growth, other states in East Asia have moved to strengthen their military, economic, and diplomatic relations with China. But why have these countries accommodated rather than balanced China's rise?
interests of the Tuck School. Thanks are also due to numerous colleagues who have read parts (or all!) of the manuscript in various versions. Peter Katzenstein has been an extraordinary intellectual friend and mentor, as well as a careful and thoughtful critic. Victor Cha remains my closest friend in the profession. We have discussed these ideas at length over the years, and while I still haven’t managed to change his mind, his friendship has been invaluable and I have learned a tremendous
Soviet-style route of seeking international expansionism and practicing domestic autocracy, those views are groundless.”19 The phrases used to describe the grand strategy have changed over the years as China has searched for a concept that best articulates its vision. In 1997, China unveiled a “New Security Concept” emphasizing peaceful coexistence, mutually beneficial economic contacts, dialogue among states to increase trust, and the peaceful settlement of disputes.20 A year earlier, China
(Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim nation), and they walk a delicate line in supporting the U.S. war on terror and yet not alienating their domestic constituencies. The Pew “Global Attitudes Poll” taken in 2003 showed that 74 percent of Indonesians were either “very worried” or “somewhat worried” about a potential U.S. military threat, while only 15 percent of Indonesians had a “favorable” attitude toward the United States.140 Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammed was
United States sees America as European, not East Asian. Culturally and ethnically, the dominant narrative about American identity focuses on its European and Protestant roots. As recently as 1928, Al Smith was the first legitimate Catholic presidential candidate, and it was not until 1960 that a non-Protestant became president. Indeed, concern about immigration of non–northern European immigrants has existed since the founding of the Republic, beginning with worries about southern European
aggrandizement, are difficult to sustain empirically. The United States has deep economic ties with China and East Asia, and although there is some suspicion of China, the United States has not yet chosen to balance China. Indeed, there is little direct threat to American interests in East Asia—the biggest threat to American interests comes from the weakest state, North Korea. Even that threat is not a traditional military one, but rather stems from the fear that a weak North Korean regime might